fix(cli): prevent repeated updates and npm cache growth - #45091

Summary

• remember the last successfully installed version so long-running services do not reinstall the same release every ten minutes
• install npm updates with a scoped temporary cache that is removed after the update, matching the existing Bun behavior
• cover already-installed updates while preserving upgrades to newer releases
• exercise repeated checks through the real updater service in an isolated subprocess, with update requests and installs stubbed

Fixes #45087

Verification

• bun test src/services/updater.test.ts (14 passing)
• regression test fails with three installs instead of one when the successful-install state update is removed, and passes with the fix restored
• GOMAXPROCS=2 bun typecheck --singleThreaded
• bun x prettier --check src/services/updater.ts src/services/updater-action.ts src/services/updater.test.ts src/services/fixtures/updater.ts

Requested by: @neriousy (Filip via Slack)